You watch football with your heart. You play fantasy with your head. That can lead to some interesting internal battles when it comes to player evaluations. Sometimes, you see what you want to see from a player. Welcome to an occasional series on Fantasy Rorschach Tests.听
"Nothing in the world causes so much misery as uncertainty." 鈥 Martin Luther听
The 16th听century Protestant Reformation bears听some听resemblance to the 21st听century Detroit Reformation.听Both involve groups of true believers expressing frustration over the failings of the status quo.听Both may also end in excommunications if things go poorly.听
Our interests are not in the divine. Rather, we'd prefer to divine if 锘D'Andre Swift锘's fantasy acts will lead you to heaven or hell in 2021.听The former Georgia star was considered one of the top running back prospects in the 2020 draft.听His Motor City landing spot didn't听generate excitement akin to 锘Clyde Edwards-Helaire锘 going to Kansas City, though they听had听nearly identical fantasy totals听after 16 weeks.听
Swift's story was one of progression. He听began the season behind 锘Adrian Peterson锘 on the Lions' depth chart.听After nearly two months, Detroit decided听to increase Swift's workload.听By Week 10, the rookie had become the starter -- a move that Peterson himself said should听have听.听
Our desire for linear听development means we听want to project bigger and better for 锘D'Andre Swift锘. In words and deeds, the Lions听are suggesting otherwise.听Or are they?听
Opportunity听
Through Week听6, Detroit's backfield听belonged to Adrian Peterson. The veteran听played 41 percent of the snaps and handled听more than 14 touches per game -- a number skewed by his 22 carries in Week 3. Contrast that with Swift, who averaged close to 10 handles per contest in that stretch.听By season's end, the turntables had turned.听Swift was on-field 40 percent of the time and handling nearly 15 touches per game.听Peterson had dropped to 26 percent and eight touches per contest.听听
Those numbers听could听have been even more lopsided toward Swift.听He missed three games midway through the year, leaving Detroit to turn to听锘Kerryon Johnson锘.听听
The phrase "new year, new me" applies听to both the Lions and听that person on social media you keep听meaning to unfollow.听Every season feels like a reboot in Detroit. This year听is no different. A new coaching staff, new players and new roles in the offense听are afoot.听That could put a听damper on hopes that Swift is meant for something more.听Also 鈥 锘Jamaal Williams锘.听
The听former Packers back听signed as a free agent, complicating the Lions running back riddle.听Williams was the stumbling block to 锘Aaron Jones锘 being a true workhorse in Green Bay. He averaged听155 touches听per听season, five fewer than Swift had听in his entire rookie听campaign.听With Peterson (free agent) and Johnson (Eagles)听out of the mix, Williams will see plenty of work.
You don't need to听take my word for it. New offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn made waves by calling Williams an "A back".听We can debate Lynn's exact meaning of the phrase,听but the intent is clear.听Any hope that听Swift will dominate the opportunities听in Detroit's backfield is minimal.听
Before we听let go of the rope with Swift's 2021 fortunes,听history can be a guide. The last time Lynn was an offensive coordinator was 2016 with the Bills.听That season featured听an offense with a听quarterback听known for checking down听(锘Tyrod Taylor锘) , a tight end听as the top target (锘Charles Clay锘), and some theretofore underwhelming wideouts (Robert Woods, 锘Marquise Goodwin锘).听Then there were the running backs.听
锘LeSean McCoy锘刻齱as the star听with听锘Mike Gillislee锘 as his understudy.听It was Shady's last outsized fantasy听run听with more than 1,600 scrimmage yards and听14 total touchdowns.听Gillislee, meanwhile, had nearly 1,000 fewer yards but听nine total scores.听
锘D'Andre Swift锘 is no 锘LeSean McCoy锘刻齛nd 锘Jamaal Williams锘 is an upgrade over听锘Mike Gillislee锘. You should expect those yardage splits to be much smaller.听You should also expect those touchdown totals to be听much lower.听Last season, the Lions were听middle of the pack听with 44 offensive touchdowns.听It's optimistic to think they could reach that number in 2021听with the litany of stout defenses on听their schedule.听Sharing limited scoring opportunities is not the business.听
One upside听is that the Lions were one of the league's most up-tempo offenses听in 2020.听It's what you do when you never have the ball and are almost always behind.听Those factors could still be in play this year. So鈥ooray?听
Fit and Usage听
Detroit asked a听lot of Swift last year. Being a third-down playmaker was not one of those things.听The rookie听lined up on less than a quarter of the team's third-down snaps.听Not great on a team figuring to see a lot of third downs this year.听
The good news is that听this year's听offense will be different from last year's. The bad听news is that Swift could still be on the short end of third-down snaps.听听
"I like to break the backs down into 'A' and 'B'," Lynn听told听听about Williams.听"My 'A' backs are normally my bigger backs. They can run between the tackles, block probably a little better than a 'B' back, they can also run the perimeter. I can leave those guys in there for all three downs."听
That doesn't sound like a coach looking to expand the role for a听second-year听back.听The most generous reading听suggests Detroit could go with a hot hand approach, which is our worst fantasy nightmare.听Could more targets be incoming? Don't count on it.听Only 锘Ben Roethlisberger锘 targeted running backs at a lower rate than 锘Jared Goff锘 last year.听听
The only known in the Lions offense is the unknown.听
Draft Value听
We all want the best for 锘D'Andre Swift锘. (Not talking to you, fans of other NFC North teams.) But听seeing him come off the board in the range of a high RB2听feels 鈥 aspirational. There is more unknown than known. And what we think we know feels听icky.听I'd rather take my chances with 锘Chris Carson锘, James Robinson or 锘Kareem Hunt锘, thank you very much.听
Marcas Grant is a fantasy analyst for NFL.com and a man who听must听get some dental work done today. Send him your听medical woes听or fantasy football questions on Twitter or Instagram at听.
